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July New-Car Sales Bounce Back To 17.5 Million SAAR On Strong Holiday Weekend Sales, Increased Incentives, Continued Leasing Growth, According To Kelley Blue Book
Kelley Blue Book Adjusts Full-Year 2016 Forecast to Range from 17.4 Million to 17.8 Million

IRVINE, Calif., July 28, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- New-vehicle sales are expected to decrease 1 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.5 million units in July 2016, resulting in an estimated 17.5 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book www.kbb.com, the vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the automotive industry.  Following a weaker-than-anticipated sales month in June, Kelley Blue Book expects new-car sales to bounce back to the mid-17 million SAAR range in July, helped by a strong Fourth of July weekend, increased incentives and continued growth in leasing.  Sales in the first half of the year totaled 8.6 million units, which was the highest first-half volume since 2001.

Kelley Blue Book Logo.

"The new-car market currently appears to be reaching its peak in terms of sales, and now there is a better chance that 2016 won't be another record year, as year-over-year comparisons for the remainder of 2016 will be tough," said Tim Fleming, analyst for Kelley Blue Book.  "After a record new-car sales total in the United States in 2015, Kelley Blue Book's full-year forecast for 2016 now calls for sales in the range of 17.4 million to 17.8 million, which would range anywhere from a slight year-over-year decline to a 2 percent increase."

Key Highlights for Estimated July 2016 Sales Forecast:

  • In July 2016, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,500,000 units, down 1 percent from July 2015 and down 1 percent from June 2016.
  • The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for July 2016 is estimated to be 17.5 million, which is even with July 2015 and up from 16.6 million in June 2016.
  • Retail sales are expected to account for 84 percent of volume in July 2016, down from 84.4 percent in July 2015.

GM Increases Incentive Spending Amidst Decline in Fleet Sales; Nissan Poised to Gain Most Market Share in July

General Motors could have one of the biggest volume declines of the major manufacturers in July, at an expected 4 percent decline.  Much of the monthly decline can be attributed to a drop in rental sales, as GM continues to focuses on increasing retail share.  However, to drive new sales, GM also has increased incentive spending, with the average climbing to nearly $4,000 per unit.

Nissan North America could gain the most market share in July, with a projected 4 percent increase in volume, due to strong months from the Frontier and Rogue.  The Frontier is benefiting from being in the hot mid-size pickup segment, while the Rogue could surpass the Altima as Nissan's top seller in July.

             

 

Sales Volume 1

Market Share 2

Manufacturer

Jul-16

Jul-15

YOY %

Jul-16

Jul-15

YOY %

General Motors (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)

262,000

272,512

-3.9%

17.5%

18.1%

-0.6%

Ford Motor Company (Ford, Lincoln)

223,000

222,014

0.4%

14.9%

14.7%

0.1%

Toyota Motor Company (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)

209,000

217,181

-3.8%

13.9%

14.4%

-0.5%

Fiat Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, FIAT, Jeep, RAM)

182,000

178,027

2.2%

12.1%

11.8%

0.3%

American Honda (Acura, Honda)

146,000

146,324

-0.2%

9.7%

9.7%

0.0%

Nissan North America (Infiniti, Nissan)

136,000

130,872

3.9%

9.1%

8.7%

0.4%

Hyundai-Kia

129,000

127,324

1.3%

8.6%

8.4%

0.2%

Subaru of America

51,000

50,517

1.0%

3.4%

3.4%

0.0%

Volkswagen Group (Audi, Volkswagen, Porsche)

48,000

53,684

-10.6%

3.2%

3.6%

-0.4%

Total 3

1,500,000

1,507,643

-0.5%

-

-

-

1 Historical data from OEM sales announcements

 

2 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights

 

3 Includes brands not shown

 

Compact SUVs Remain Top Segment; SUV Sales Have Nearly Surpassed Sales of Cars This Year

Compact SUVs will remain the top-selling segment in July, extending its share to nearly 18 percent of new sales.  On the whole, SUV sales have nearly surpassed sales of cars this year, with SUVs comprising 39 percent of sales compared to 40 percent for cars.

July also looks like a good month for full-size trucks, with projected segment growth of 3 percent. After volume fell last month, GM has focused efforts on the Silverado and Sierra, and Kelley Blue Book expects sales to return in July.

 

Sales Volume 1

Market Share

Segment

Jul-16

Jul-15

YOY %

Jul-16

Jul-15

YOY %

Compact SUV/Crossover

269,000

257,020

4.7%

17.9%

17.0%

0.9%

Full-Size Pickup Truck

196,000

190,132

3.1%

13.1%

12.6%

0.5%

Mid-Size Car

192,000

216,365

-11.3%

12.8%

14.4%

-1.6%

Compact Car

186,000

199,273

-6.7%

12.4%

13.2%

-0.8%

Mid-Size SUV/Crossover

171,000

172,337

-0.8%

11.4%

11.4%

0.0%

Total 2

1,500,000

1,507,643

-0.5%

-

-

-

1 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights

 

2 Includes segments not shown

 

There are 26 sales days in July 2016 and July 2015.  All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.  As of this writing, the Bureau of Economic Analysis has not updated the seasonal factors used to calculate the SAAR for this month.

To discuss this topic, or any other automotive-related information, with a Kelley Blue Book analyst on-camera via the company's on-site studio, please contact a member of the Public Relations team to book an interview.

For more information and news from Kelley Blue Book's KBB.com, visit www.kbb.com/media/, follow us on Twitter at www.twitter.com/kelleybluebook (or @kelleybluebook), like our page on Facebook at www.facebook.com/kbb, and get updates on Google+ at https://plus.google.com/+kbb.

About Kelley Blue Book (www.kbb.com)
Founded in 1926, Kelley Blue Book, The Trusted Resource®, is the vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the automotive industry.  Each week the company provides the most market-reflective values in the industry on its top-rated website KBB.com, including its famous Blue Book® Trade-In Values and Fair Purchase Price, which reports what others are paying for new and used cars this week.  The company also provides vehicle pricing and values through various products and services available to car dealers, auto manufacturers, finance and insurance companies, and governmental agencies.  Kelley Blue Book's KBB.com ranked highest in its category for brand equity by the 2015 Harris Poll EquiTrend® study and has been named Online Auto Shopping Brand of the Year for five consecutive years.  Kelley Blue Book Co., Inc. is a Cox Automotive™ brand.

About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive Inc. is transforming the way the world buys, sells and owns cars with industry-leading digital marketing, software, financial, wholesale and e-commerce solutions for consumers, dealers, manufacturers and the overall automotive ecosystem worldwide. Committed to open choice and dedicated to strong partnerships, the Cox Automotive family includes Autotrader®, Dealer.com®, Dealertrack®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, NextGear Capital®, vAuto®, Xtime® and a host of other brands. The global company has 33,000 team members in more than 200 locations and is partner to more than 40,000 auto dealers, as well as most major automobile manufacturers, while engaging U.S. consumer car buyers with the most recognized media brands in the industry. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., an Atlanta-based company with revenues of $18 billion and approximately 55,000 employees. Cox Enterprises' other major operating subsidiaries include Cox Communications and Cox Media Group. For more information about Cox Automotive, visit www.coxautoinc.com.

Media Contacts:

Chintan Talati

Joanna Pinkham

Brenna Robinson

Michelle Behar

949-267-4855

404-568-7135

949-267-4781

949-268-4259

chintan.talati@kbb.com

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brenna.robinson@kbb.com

michelle.behar@kbb.com      

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SOURCE Kelley Blue Book

Key Contacts

Sr. Public Relations Manager
Brenna Buehler
949.473.6595
brenna.buehler@coxautoinc.com

Sr. Public Relations Manager
Nichole Mrasek
404.568.6352
nichole.mrasek@coxautoinc.com  

 

  

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