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October New-Car Sales Drop 6 Percent From Last Year For Estimated 17.9 Million SAAR, According To Kelley Blue Book
Volkswagen Still Losing Market Share One Year After Diesel Scandal; SUV Sales Surpass Car Sales for First Time in the United States

IRVINE, Calif., Oct. 27, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- New-vehicle sales are expected to decline 6 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.36 million units in October 2016, resulting in an estimated 17.9 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book www.kbb.com, the vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the automotive industry. 

Kelley Blue Book Logo.

"Kelley Blue Book expects October 2016 sales to come in at a robust 17.9 million SAAR; however, due to two fewer selling days and an extremely strong October 2015, there will be volume declines across the industry," said Tim Fleming, analyst for Kelley Blue Book.  "Higher incentives are helping boost sales, but with transaction prices at an all-time high and great consumer demand for SUVs and trucks, which are more profitable, automakers can afford the extra incentives.  Still, discipline with incentives and moderating production will go a long way in preserving residual values in the next few years."

After a record U.S. sales total in 2015, Kelley Blue Book's full-year forecast for 2016 calls for sales in the range of 17.3 to 17.6 million, which would range from a 1 percent decrease to a possible 1 percent increase. 

Key Highlights for Estimated October 2016 Sales Forecast:

  • In October 2016, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,360,000 units, down 6 percent from October 2015 and down 5 percent from September 2016.
  • The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for October 2016 is estimated to be 17.9 million, down from 18 million in October 2015 and up from 17.7 million in September 2016.
  • Retail sales are expected to account for 82.5 percent of volume in October 2016, down from 83.3 percent in October 2015.

Subaru Continues Remarkable Streak; Volkswagen Still Losing Market Share One Year After Diesel Scandal

Subaru of America continues to shine brightly in the industry, although analysts expect October totals to be flat year-over-year due to the two fewer selling days this October.  While Subaru's sales growth streak of 58 consecutive months might be in jeopardy this month, it is still remarkable to note that Subaru has the fastest-selling inventory, lowest days' supply and the least incentives of any major brand.

"Now, more than one year removed from the announcement of the company's diesel scandal, Volkswagen is still losing market share in the United States, and Kelley Blue Book expects volume declines to approach 10 percent in October 2016," said Fleming.  "Upcoming SUV launches, including the redesigned Tiguan and an all-new three-row SUV, will certainly help Volkswagen's car-dominant lineup once they hit the market, and that can't come soon enough for Volkswagen dealers.  Importantly, the Audi and Porsche brands have not been affected by the scandal, as sales for those two brands are up year-over-year." 

 

Sales Volume 1

Market Share 2

Manufacturer

Oct-16

Oct-15

YOY %

Oct-16

Oct-15

YOY %

General Motors (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)

247,000

262,993

-6.1%

18.2%

18.1%

0.0%

Toyota Motor Company (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)

194,000

204,045

-4.9%

14.3%

14.1%

0.2%

Ford Motor Company (Ford, Lincoln)

190,000

213,105

-10.8%

14.0%

14.7%

-0.7%

Fiat Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, FIAT, Jeep, RAM)

180,000

195,545

-7.9%

13.2%

13.5%

-0.2%

American Honda (Acura, Honda)

125,000

131,651

-5.1%

9.2%

9.1%

0.1%

Nissan North America (Infiniti, Nissan)

114,000

116,047

-1.8%

8.4%

8.0%

0.4%

Hyundai-Kia

104,000

110,049

-5.5%

7.6%

7.6%

0.1%

Subaru of America

51,000

51,629

-1.2%

3.8%

3.6%

0.2%

Volkswagen Group (Audi, Volkswagen, Porsche)

47,000

52,157

-9.9%

3.5%

3.6%

-0.1%

Total 3

1,360,000

1,451,703

-6.3%

-

-

-

1 Historical data from OEM sales announcements

2 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights

3 Includes brands not shown

SUV Sales Surpass Car Sales for First Time in the United States

The mid-size car segment looks like it will continue to freefall in October 2016, with share dropping 1.5 percent.  Only two models in the segment have increased sales this year (Chevrolet Malibu and Subaru Legacy), despite increased incentive spending.  As a whole, market share for cars in October 2016 is nearly 37 percent, compared to 40 percent in October 2015.  For the first time on Kelley Blue Book's record, SUV sales have now surpassed car sales in the United States, a trend that likely will continue with moderate gas prices. 

 

Sales Volume 1

Market Share

Segment

Oct-16

Oct-15

YOY %

Oct-16

Oct-15

YOY %

Compact SUV/Crossover

241,000

252,413

-4.5%

17.7%

17.4%

0.3%

Full-Size Pickup Truck

175,000

186,995

-6.4%

12.9%

12.9%

0.0%

Mid-Size Car

162,000

194,668

-16.8%

11.9%

13.4%

-1.5%

Compact Car

160,000

168,733

-5.2%

11.8%

11.6%

0.1%

Mid-Size SUV/Crossover

159,000

165,518

-3.9%

11.7%

11.4%

0.3%

Total 2

1,360,000

1,451,703

-6.3%

-

-

-

1 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights

2 Includes segments not shown

There are 26 sales days in October 2016, compared to 28 sales days in October 2015.  All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.  

To discuss this topic, or any other automotive-related information, with a Kelley Blue Book analyst on-camera via the company's on-site studio, please contact a member of the Public Relations team to book an interview.

For more information and news from Kelley Blue Book's KBB.com, visit www.kbb.com/media/, follow us on Twitter at www.twitter.com/kelleybluebook (or @kelleybluebook), like our page on Facebook at www.facebook.com/kbb, and get updates on Google+ at https://plus.google.com/+kbb.

About Kelley Blue Book (www.kbb.com)
Founded in 1926, Kelley Blue Book, The Trusted Resource®, is the vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the automotive industry.  Each week the company provides the most market-reflective values in the industry on its top-rated website KBB.com, including its famous Blue Book® Trade-In Values and Fair Purchase Price, which reports what others are paying for new and used cars this week.  The company also provides vehicle pricing and values through various products and services available to car dealers, auto manufacturers, finance and insurance companies, and governmental agencies.  Kelley Blue Book's KBB.com ranked highest in its category for brand equity by the 2016 Harris Poll EquiTrend® study and has been named Online Auto Shopping Brand of the Year for five consecutive years.  Kelley Blue Book Co., Inc. is a Cox Automotive brand.

About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive Inc. is transforming the way the world buys, sells and owns cars with industry-leading digital marketing, software, financial, wholesale and e-commerce solutions for consumers, dealers, manufacturers and the overall automotive ecosystem worldwide. Committed to open choice and dedicated to strong partnerships, the Cox Automotive family includes Autotrader®, Dealer.com®, Dealertrack®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, NextGear Capital®, vAuto®, Xtime® and a host of other brands. The global company has 33,000 team members in more than 200 locations and is partner to more than 40,000 auto dealers, as well as most major automobile manufacturers, while engaging U.S. consumer car buyers with the most recognized media brands in the industry. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., an Atlanta-based company with revenues of $18 billion and approximately 60,000 employees. Cox Enterprises' other major operating subsidiaries include Cox Communications and Cox Media Group. For more information about Cox Automotive, visit www.coxautoinc.com.

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SOURCE Kelley Blue Book

For further information: Andrew Nicolai, 949-293-5241, andrew.nicolai@coxautoinc.com; Brenna Robinson, 949-267-4781, brenna.robinson@kbb.com; Michelle Behar, 949-268-4259, michelle.behar@kbb.com; Joanna Pinkham, 404-568-7135, joanna.pinkham@kbb.com
Key Contacts

Sr. Public Relations Manager
Brenna Buehler
(On maternity leave until mid-Oct)

Sr. Public Relations Manager
Nichole Mrasek
404.568.6352
nichole.mrasek@coxautoinc.com  

 

  

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