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August New-Car Sales Drop 2 Percent From Last Year For Estimated 17.3 Million SAAR, According To Kelley Blue Book
General Motors Expected to Drop for Fifth Consecutive Month; Hyundai-Kia to Gain Most Market Share

IRVINE, Calif., Aug. 29, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- New-vehicle sales are expected to decrease 2 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.54 million units in August 2016, resulting in an estimated 17.3 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book www.kbb.com, the vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the automotive industry. 

Kelley Blue Book Logo.

"Overall, sales are expected to remain steady in the mid-17 million SAAR range, despite a small drop in volume for August 2016," said Tim Fleming, analyst for Kelley Blue Book.  "The mix of sales is divided, with demand for utility vehicles continuing to grow at the same time that car sales are falling.  As we reach the peak of the market, Kelley Blue Book will keep an eye on a few key factors, including increased fleet penetration in 2016 combined with flat retail demand, rising incentive spend from automakers, and used car prices, which have yet to respond to the growing supply of off-lease vehicles.  Any changes to the trajectory of these factors could speed up the eventual decline in new-car sales for the industry."

After a record U.S. sales total in 2015, Kelley Blue Book's full-year forecast for 2016 calls for sales in the range of 17.4 to 17.8 million. 

Key Highlights for Estimated August 2016 Sales Forecast:

  • In August, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,540,000 units, down 2 percent from August 2015 and up 1 percent from July 2016.
  • The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for August 2016 is estimated to be 17.3 million, down from 17.7 million in August 2015 and down from 17.8 million in July 2016.
  • Retail sales are expected to account for 85.7 percent of volume in August 2016, down from 86.4 percent in August 2015.

General Motors Expected to Drop for Fifth Consecutive Month; Hyundai-Kia to Gain Most Market Share
General Motor is expected to post volume declines for the fifth consecutive month, as Kelley Blue Book projects sales to decline 5 percent. 

"General Motors has lost nearly a full point of market share this year, although this is fully attributable to reduced rental sales, which are less profitable," said Fleming.  "In fact, GM has gone from the top automaker of rental vehicles to No. 4 this year, which is part of their push to focus on strengthening residual values and profitability rather than boosting sales totals."

Hyundai-Kia could gain the most market share this month of all major manufacturers and are projected to increase sales 2 percent.  Crossovers like the Hyundai Santa Fe and Kia Sportage will help drive these increases, while cars like the Kia Optima and Kia Soul are trending down.          

 

Sales Volume 1

Market Share 2

Manufacturer

Aug-16

Aug-15

YOY %

Aug-16

Aug-15

YOY %

General Motors (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)

256,000

270,480

-5.4%

16.6%

17.2%

-0.6%

Ford Motor Company (Ford, Lincoln)

218,000

233,880

-6.8%

14.2%

14.9%

-0.7%

Toyota Motor Company (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)

222,000

224,381

-1.1%

14.4%

14.3%

0.2%

Fiat Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, FIAT, Jeep, RAM)

202,000

201,672

0.2%

13.1%

12.8%

0.3%

American Honda (Acura, Honda)

157,000

155,491

1.0%

10.2%

9.9%

0.3%

Nissan North America (Infiniti, Nissan)

134,000

133,351

0.5%

8.7%

8.5%

0.2%

Hyundai-Kia

133,000

130,909

1.6%

8.6%

8.3%

0.3%

Subaru of America

54,000

52,697

2.5%

3.5%

3.3%

0.2%

Volkswagen Group (Audi, Volkswagen, Porsche)

53,000

56,134

-5.6%

3.4%

3.6%

-0.1%

Total 3

1,540,000

1,573,573

-2.1%

-

-

-

1 Historical data from OEM sales announcements

2 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights

3 Includes brands not shown

 

Compact Utility Vehicles to Increase Market Share to More Than 19 Percent; Mid-Size Cars See Drops Across All Models
Compact utility vehicles should grow its market share to more than 19 percent in August 2016, as consumer demand for these models continues to build.  While the projected 4 percent growth might not seem like much compared to the segment's double-digit growth in recent years, it represents a significant amount of volume given its position as the top segment in the market and growth here is helping offset the weakened demand for cars. 

On the flip side of the coin, the mid-size car segment, which was the top selling segment just a few years ago, is now extremely soft and Kelley Blue Books projects the segment will drop 17 percent this month.  Kelley Blue Book analysts anticipate nearly all models to show declines, with the top losses coming from the Honda Accord and Chrysler 200.

 

Sales Volume 1

Market Share

Segment

Aug-16

Aug-15

YOY %

Aug-16

Aug-15

YOY %

Compact SUV/Crossover

296,000

284,107

4.2%

19.2%

18.1%

1.2%

Full-Size Pickup Truck

208,000

204,185

1.9%

13.5%

13.0%

0.5%

Mid-Size Car

186,000

224,176

-17.0%

12.1%

14.2%

-2.2%

Compact Car

182,000

192,491

-5.5%

11.8%

12.2%

-0.4%

Mid-Size SUV/Crossover

176,000

174,836

0.7%

11.4%

11.1%

0.3%

Total 2

1,540,000

1,573,573

-2.1%

-

-

-

1 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights

2 Includes segments not shown

 

There are 26 sales days in August 2016 and August 2015.  All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.  

To discuss this topic, or any other automotive-related information, with a Kelley Blue Book analyst on-camera via the company's on-site studio, please contact a member of the Public Relations team to book an interview.

For more information and news from Kelley Blue Book's KBB.com, visit www.kbb.com/media/, follow us on Twitter at www.twitter.com/kelleybluebook (or @kelleybluebook), like our page on Facebook at www.facebook.com/kbb, and get updates on Google+ at https://plus.google.com/+kbb.

About Kelley Blue Book (www.kbb.com)
Founded in 1926, Kelley Blue Book, The Trusted Resource®, is the vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the automotive industry.  Each week the company provides the most market-reflective values in the industry on its top-rated website KBB.com, including its famous Blue Book® Trade-In Values and Fair Purchase Price, which reports what others are paying for new and used cars this week.  The company also provides vehicle pricing and values through various products and services available to car dealers, auto manufacturers, finance and insurance companies, and governmental agencies.  Kelley Blue Book's KBB.com ranked highest in its category for brand equity by the 2016 Harris Poll EquiTrend® study and has been named Online Auto Shopping Brand of the Year for five consecutive years.  Kelley Blue Book Co., Inc. is a Cox Automotive brand.

About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive Inc. is transforming the way the world buys, sells and owns cars with industry-leading digital marketing, software, financial, wholesale and e-commerce solutions for consumers, dealers, manufacturers and the overall automotive ecosystem worldwide. Committed to open choice and dedicated to strong partnerships, the Cox Automotive family includes Autotrader®, Dealer.com®, Dealertrack®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, NextGear Capital®, vAuto®, Xtime® and a host of other brands. The global company has 33,000 team members in more than 200 locations and is partner to more than 40,000 auto dealers, as well as most major automobile manufacturers, while engaging U.S. consumer car buyers with the most recognized media brands in the industry. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., an Atlanta-based company with revenues of $18 billion and approximately 60,000 employees. Cox Enterprises' other major operating subsidiaries include Cox Communications and Cox Media Group. For more information about Cox Automotive, visit www.coxautoinc.com.

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SOURCE Kelley Blue Book

For further information: Andrew Nicolai, 949-293-5241, andrew.nicolai@coxautoinc.com, Brenna Robinson, 949-267-4781, brenna.robinson@kbb.com, Michelle Behar, 949-268-4259, michelle.behar@kbb.com, Joanna Pinkham, 404-568-7135, joanna.pinkham@kbb.com
Key Contacts

Sr. Public Relations Manager
Brenna Buehler
949.473.6595
brenna.buehler@coxautoinc.com

Sr. Public Relations Manager
Nichole Mrasek
404.568.6352
nichole.mrasek@coxautoinc.com  

 

  

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