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April New-Car Sales To Fall 3 Percent Year-Over-Year; 2017 Expected To Be First Down Year Since 2009, According To Kelley Blue Book
Passat and Mazda6 Only Models in Mid-Size Car Segment to See Positive Growth

IRVINE, Calif., April 25, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- New-vehicle sales are expected to decrease 3 percent year-over-year to a total of 1.45 million units in April 2017, resulting in an estimated 17.1 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), according to Kelley Blue Book www.kbb.com, the vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the automotive industry.

"After a weaker-than-expected March, it's becoming more likely that 2017 will be the first down year for the industry since 2009," said Tim Fleming, analyst for Kelley Blue Book.  "Kelley Blue Book expects April to continue this downward trend, however the SAAR should bounce back to approximately 17.1 million as a result of one less selling day.  Beyond April, we will continue to closely monitor still high levels of inventory and elevated incentive spending by manufacturers, both of which are signs of overproduction following last year's sales peak."

After a record year of sales in 2016 and seven consecutive year-over-year sales increases, Kelley Blue Book's forecast for 2017 calls for sales in the range of 16.8 million to 17.3 million units, which represents a 1 to 4 percent decrease from last year.

Key Highlights for Estimated April 2017 Sales Forecast:

  • In April, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,445,000 units, down 3 percent compared to April 2016 and down 7 percent from March 2017.
  • The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for April 2017 is estimated to be 17.1 million, down from 17.3 million in April 2016 and up from 16.5 million in March 2017.
  • Retail sales are expected to account for 79.2 percent of volume in April 2017, slightly up from 79.0 percent in April 2016.

Subaru Expected to Set Monthly Record Amidst Industry Declines; Fiat Chrysler to Post Greatest Declines in April 2017

While most manufacturers will likely report declines in April, Subaru is poised to set another monthly record.  The recently redesigned Impreza is leading the way for the automaker, at a time when most cars are struggling in the market.  To help achieve this growth, Subaru is boosting its incentive spending, but the manufacturer still maintains the lowest incentive levels in the industry.

Fiat Chrysler could see one of the greatest sales declines of all major manufacturers at a projected volume loss of 6 percent.  The Jeep brand, now the highest volume brand for FCA, has faltered as of late and needs a solid launch for the new Compass, which recently hit dealerships.  April looks to be a down month for Jeep and FCA's overall SUV lineup, even as SUV sales are generally faring well across the industry.

 

Sales Volume 1

Market Share 2

Manufacturer

Apr-17

Apr-16

YOY %

Apr-17

Apr-16

YOY %

General Motors (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)

258,000

259,557

-0.6%

17.9%

17.4%

0.5%

Ford Motor Company (Ford, Lincoln)

217,000

229,739

-5.5%

15.0%

15.4%

-0.4%

Toyota Motor Company (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)

201,000

211,125

-4.8%

13.9%

14.2%

-0.2%

Fiat Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, FIAT, Jeep, RAM)

178,000

189,005

-5.8%

12.3%

12.7%

-0.4%

American Honda (Acura, Honda)

142,000

148,829

-4.6%

9.8%

10.0%

-0.1%

Nissan North America (Infiniti, Nissan)

123,000

123,861

-0.7%

8.5%

8.3%

0.2%

Hyundai-Kia

113,000

118,721

-4.8%

7.8%

8.0%

-0.1%

Subaru of America

53,000

50,380

5.2%

3.7%

3.4%

0.3%

Volkswagen Group (Audi, Volkswagen, Porsche)

50,500

50,323

0.4%

3.5%

3.4%

0.1%

Total 3

1,445,000

1,491,891

-3.1%

-

-

-

1 Historical data from OEM sales announcements

2 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights

3 Includes brands not shown

Sport Utilities Continue to Outpace All Segments; Mid-Size Cars Will Continue to See Poor Performance Throughout the Year

Sport utilities continue to dominate sales growth in the industry, and this month, analysts expect the mid-size SUV segment to see the highest growth at an estimated 8 percent increase.  Mid-size SUVs appear to have the largest impact in swaying consumers from buying mid-size cars and minivans, both of which are down 20 percent this year.

"Mid-size cars continue to endure another poor month, and Kelley Blue Book anticipates the segment's market share will fall nearly two percentage points," said Fleming.  "Just two of the twelve models in the segment – the Passat and the Mazda6 – have seen positive growth so far this year.  Incentive spending for mid-size cars still remains high, despite the contraction in volume, which suggests further weakness may still lie ahead."

 

Sales Volume 1

Market Share

Segment

Apr-17

Apr-16

YOY %

Apr-17

Apr-16

YOY %

Compact SUV/Crossover

243,000

242,152

0.4%

16.8%

16.2%

0.6%

Full-Size Pickup Truck

190,000

192,828

-1.5%

13.1%

12.9%

0.2%

Compact Car

187,000

196,840

-5.0%

12.9%

13.2%

-0.3%

Mid-Size SUV/Crossover

182,000

168,233

8.2%

12.6%

11.3%

1.3%

Mid-Size Car

152,000

184,567

-17.6%

10.5%

12.4%

-1.9%

Total 2

1,445,000

1,491,891

-3.1%

-

-

-

1 Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights

2 Includes segments not shown

           

There are 26 sales days in April 2017, compared to 27 sales days in April 2016.  All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.  

To discuss this topic, or any other automotive-related information, with a Kelley Blue Book analyst on-camera via the company's on-site studio, please contact a member of the Public Relations team to schedule an interview.

For more information and news from Kelley Blue Book's KBB.com, visit www.kbb.com/media/, follow us on Twitter at www.twitter.com/kelleybluebook (or @kelleybluebook), like our page on Facebook at www.facebook.com/kbb, and get updates on Google+ at https://plus.google.com/+kbb.

About Kelley Blue Book (https://www.kbb.com/)
Founded in 1926, Kelley Blue Book, The Trusted Resource®, is the vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the automotive industry.  Each week the company provides the most market-reflective values in the industry on its top-rated website KBB.com, including its famous Blue Book® Trade-In Values and Fair Purchase Price, which reports what others are paying for new and used cars this week.  The company also provides vehicle pricing and values through various products and services available to car dealers, auto manufacturers, finance and insurance companies, and governmental agencies.  Kelley Blue Book Co., Inc. is a Cox Automotive brand.

About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive Inc. is transforming the way the world buys, sells and owns cars with industry-leading digital marketing, software, financial, wholesale and e-commerce solutions for consumers, dealers, manufacturers and the overall automotive ecosystem worldwide. Committed to open choice and dedicated to strong partnerships, the Cox Automotive family includes Autotrader®, Dealer.com®, Dealertrack®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, NextGear Capital®, vAuto®, Xtime® and a host of other brands. The global company has 33,000 team members in more than 200 locations and is partner to more than 40,000 auto dealers, as well as most major automobile manufacturers, while engaging U.S. consumer car buyers with the most recognized media brands in the industry. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., an Atlanta-based company with revenues of $18 billion and approximately 60,000 employees. Cox Enterprises' other major operating subsidiaries include Cox Communications and Cox Media Group. For more information about Cox Automotive, visit www.coxautoinc.com.

Media Contacts:

   

Andrew Nicolai

Brenna Buehler

Michelle Behar

949-293-5241            

949-267-4781

949-268-4259

andrew.nicolai@coxautoinc.com   

brenna.buehler@kbb.com   

michelle.behar@kbb.com

 

 

SOURCE Kelley Blue Book


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